Resilient Investing for Uncertain Times

In late October 2025, the precious metals market experienced significant volatility. Gold and silver both recorded their largest single-day declines in over a decade. Based on market commentary and objective facts, here is a detailed analysis of the common factors and specific triggers that caused this sharp drop. 1. Common Factors Affecting Both Metals: Macro Environment and Selling Pressure The decline was driven by structural pressures that affected both gold and silver, stemming from an overstretched market and a shift in sentiment. 1. Profit-Taking from an Overheated Market The primary cause of the sharp decline was the strong run-up that immediately preceded it. Fact: Right before the drop, gold prices were hitting new all-time highs. The massive surge had led to widespread perceptions of an overheated market. Analysis: Given this rapid appreciation, the market was primed for a correction. This provided the condition for large-scale profit-taking as investors cashed out aft...

【Overview】 This week, we reviewed global market liquidity, AI-related trends, and investor sentiment indicators. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remained stable around 4%, with real yields near 1.7%. Credit markets stayed calm, while money-market fund (MMF) balances rose to a record $7.4 trillion . Meanwhile, the VIX hovered between 16–18, and the Fear & Greed Index stayed in “Fear” territory at 33 , signaling cautious sentiment. Overall assessment: 🟡 Caution (Localized overheating). ＜1. Macro Financial Environment＞ U.S. 10-year yield: 4.01–4.02%, little movement Real yield (TIPS): around 1.7%, stable Fed balance sheet: roughly unchanged Yield curve: remains flat HY OAS: around 3%, steady TED spread: at a low 0.09% 【Assessment】 🟢 Stable 【Summary】 No stress in rates or credit spreads. Liquidity conditions remain healthy. ＜2. Capital Flows & Credit Conditions＞ MMF balance: $7.40T (+$30B w/w) ETF flows: short-term inflows/outflows in AI an...

Period October 19–25, 2025 1. Key Economic Indicators US CPI (September): +3.0% y/y / +3.1% forecast / Inflation remains above Fed target, limiting policy easing scope. US S&P Global Composite PMI (flash): 54.8 / flat vs. expectations / Services-led growth, sentiment soft. Japan Core CPI (September): +2.9% y/y / In line / Energy and food costs pushing inflation up despite demand weakness. Japan PMI (October flash): Manufacturing 48.3; Services 52.4 / Flat vs. forecasts / Manufacturing remains weak, cost pressures persistent. Eurozone Composite PMI (October flash): 52.2 / Consensus 51.0 / Demand rebound underway albeit with regional disparity. 2. Major Economic & Geopolitical News US: Government shutdown affecting many statistics, but CPI release proceeded. Implication: Inflation still sticky, limiting Fed flexibility. Spillover: Risk assets may see increased volatility. Japan: Inflation has re‐accelerated while manufacturing is flagging. Implication:...

Overview This week’s report reviews global market liquidity, AI bubble dynamics, and investor sentiment indicators. U.S. long-term yields fell below 4%, and the VIX retreated after a brief spike, signaling temporary easing in financial conditions. However, due to the U.S. government shutdown, CPI and retail sales data releases were delayed, leaving macro visibility partially clouded. Meanwhile, AI semiconductor supply-demand conditions remain tight, with memory prices climbing again. Investor sentiment stayed in the “Fear” zone. 【Observation Categories】 1. Macro Financial Environment U.S. 10-year yield: below 4% (3.99%) Real yield curve turned slightly positive (mild steepening) Fed/ECB balance sheets stable to slightly shrinking VIX declined from 22 to 19 Major central banks remain cautious, maintaining current policy stance Assessment: Stable Summary: Long-term yields eased and volatility subsided, slightly loosening overall financial conditions. Both the Fed a...

1. Key Economic Indicators US full-year 2025 growth forecast revised to 1.8% (from ~1.3%) — “resilient yet fragile” amid trade friction and weak housing. US CPI (September) : Release postponed due to government shutdown (now expected Oct 24). Market expects +3.3% YoY driven by energy costs. US Retail Sales (September) : Official release delayed; Chicago Fed estimates core sales +0.5% MoM, indicating steady consumer demand. China Q3 GDP +4.8% ( Q2 +5.2% ) — momentum slowing, adding pressure for policy support. China exports +8.3% YoY (beat +6%) but US-bound shipments fell. Japan auto/transport machinery index +9 (vs +33 prior) — first decline in 4 months signalling softer external demand. FX: Dollar index ~98.7; USD/JPY ~151.2 — dollar under pressure as rate-cut bets rise and trade tensions flare. 2. Major Economic & Geopolitical News IMF upgraded global growth to 3.2% for 2025 but warned of renewed US-China trade risks. IMF flagged record public debt;...

  Overview Triggered by renewed U.S.–China trade tensions (tariff hike threats up to 100% and tighter export controls), tech stocks plunged and volatility spiked on Friday, October 10. The VIX rose sharply, and the put-call ratio shifted toward risk aversion. However, the credit market (HY spread below 3%) remains within the “normal range,” and MMF balances are still near record highs. As the earnings season begins, investors’ attention turns to the financial sector’s results and forward guidance. TSMC’s Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, and NVIDIA’s August earnings confirmed continued growth with a strong Q3 outlook. Overall, market psychology cooled due to a localized shock, but credit and liquidity fundamentals remain intact. 1. Macro-Financial Environment U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: Fell to the low-4% range on Oct 10 amid a flight to safety. The partial U.S. government shutdown entered day 10, adding uncertainty. VIX: Jumped from 16.4 → 21.7 (Oct 9 → Oct 10). HY...

Period Oct 5–11, 2025 1. Key Economic Indicators US Michigan Sentiment (Oct prelim): 55.0 vs 55.1 prior — consumer sentiment flat amid price and labor concerns. FOMC Minutes (Sep 16–17): Members noted slowing growth and easing inflation, keeping rate-cut timing open. Japan Household Spending (Aug): +2.3% y/y; travel and transport outlays lifted overall consumption. Japan Current Account (Aug): ¥3.78T surplus, down y/y on weaker investment income. China FX Reserves (Sep): $3.34T, up for a second month. 2. Major Economic & Geopolitical News US government shutdown continues , delaying key data such as jobs and CPI reports; data vacuum heightens uncertainty. FOMC minutes focused on downside growth risks, with roughly 50% probability of rate cut later this year. Japan’s new cabinet draws optimism , expected to unveil fiscal stimulus and SME support measures; markets watch the size of the early supplementary budget. However, the Komeito party’s withdr...

Period Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2025 1. Key Economic Indicators US ADP Employment (Sep): −32K vs +50K expected — clear slowdown in hiring. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep): 49.1 — still in contraction zone, though slightly better than Aug. ISM Services PMI (Sep): 50.0 — expansion stalled, weakest since early 2024. Composite PMI (Sep): 52.0 (mfg) / 50.1 (svc) — modest growth, but momentum soft. JOLTS (Aug): 7.23M openings — hiring and separations slower, mild labor market cooling. 2. Major Economic & Geopolitical News Soft US jobs data strengthened bets for a Fed rate cut by year-end. BoJ held rates steady while announcing ETF and J-REIT sell-downs for balance sheet normalization. Japan’s Q2 GDP revised upward to +1.0% annualized on stronger exports. Sanae Takaichi elected LDP leader, poised to become Japan’s first female PM; markets watch policy direction. China expanded local government bond quota to support fiscal stimulus. 3. Investment Stanc...

Summary (Conclusion First) Morgan Housel’s The Psychology of Money is not about technical strategies for building wealth—it is about how we should think about money . The core lessons are: Building wealth and keeping wealth require different mindsets. Luck and risk play a much larger role in outcomes than we often admit. The ultimate value of money lies in the freedom it provides. Rather than chasing shortcuts or one-off success stories, the book reinforces that humility and consistency— long-term investing, saving, and diversification —are the true foundations of financial security. Introduction I picked up this book not to learn another investing tactic, but to rethink my overall relationship with money. Morgan Housel, a former Wall Street Journal columnist, explains how psychology drives financial decisions, showing why behavior often matters more than knowledge. Key Takeaways (My Understanding) Building wealth vs. maintaining wealth are two different challeng...

The YouTube video “Silver’s Next Move: $50+ is Just the Beginning” presents a highly bullish outlook on the silver market. Below, I summarize the main points and share my own perspective as an investor. (Reference: YouTube, “SILVER’S NEXT MOVE: $50+ IS JUST THE BEGINNING”) Key Points from the Video Silver is undervalued The gold-to-silver ratio is currently at historically high levels, suggesting silver is significantly underpriced relative to gold. Over the next few years, silver could rise at two to three times the pace of gold. Price outlook: beyond $50 The previous highs of $50 (in 1980 and 2011) are seen only as milestones, not ceilings. This time, the rally is expected to be faster, making silver a prime opportunity for wealth preservation. Recommended allocation: 20–30% Unlike past recommendations, the video argues that now is the time to overweight silver, suggesting investors can confidently hold up to 30% of their portfolios in silver. My Perspective While the vide...