Weekly Investment Observation (October 5, 2025)

Period

Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2025

1. Key Economic Indicators

  • US ADP Employment (Sep): −32K vs +50K expected — clear slowdown in hiring.

  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep): 49.1 — still in contraction zone, though slightly better than Aug.

  • ISM Services PMI (Sep): 50.0 — expansion stalled, weakest since early 2024.

  • Composite PMI (Sep): 52.0 (mfg) / 50.1 (svc) — modest growth, but momentum soft.

  • JOLTS (Aug): 7.23M openings — hiring and separations slower, mild labor market cooling.

2. Major Economic & Geopolitical News

  • Soft US jobs data strengthened bets for a Fed rate cut by year-end.

  • BoJ held rates steady while announcing ETF and J-REIT sell-downs for balance sheet normalization.

  • Japan’s Q2 GDP revised upward to +1.0% annualized on stronger exports.

  • Sanae Takaichi elected LDP leader, poised to become Japan’s first female PM; markets watch policy direction.

  • China expanded local government bond quota to support fiscal stimulus.

3. Investment Stance

  • Equities: Cautious — indexes at record highs; avoid aggressive accumulation.

  • Bonds: Neutral — long-term Treasuries avoided until fiscal clarity; short-term considered.

  • Commodities: Positive — bullish on gold long-term; buy on dips after near-term correction.

  • FX: Range-bound — USD/JPY likely to oscillate 147–150 until clearer policy signals from new administration.

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