Weekly Investment Observation (October 12, 2025)

Period

Oct 5–11, 2025

1. Key Economic Indicators

  • US Michigan Sentiment (Oct prelim): 55.0 vs 55.1 prior — consumer sentiment flat amid price and labor concerns.

  • FOMC Minutes (Sep 16–17): Members noted slowing growth and easing inflation, keeping rate-cut timing open.

  • Japan Household Spending (Aug): +2.3% y/y; travel and transport outlays lifted overall consumption.

  • Japan Current Account (Aug): ¥3.78T surplus, down y/y on weaker investment income.

  • China FX Reserves (Sep): $3.34T, up for a second month.

2. Major Economic & Geopolitical News

  • US government shutdown continues, delaying key data such as jobs and CPI reports; data vacuum heightens uncertainty.

  • FOMC minutes focused on downside growth risks, with roughly 50% probability of rate cut later this year.

  • Japan’s new cabinet draws optimism, expected to unveil fiscal stimulus and SME support measures; markets watch the size of the early supplementary budget. However, the Komeito party’s withdrawal from the coalition adds political uncertainty.

  • China’s authorities continue to expand local bond quotas and liquidity support, balancing stimulus and debt stability.

  • US–China relations tense as Washington considers export restrictions on aviation components, reviving supply-chain risks.

3. Investment Stance

  • Equities: Cautious — record-high valuations and data void warrant patience.

  • Bonds: Neutral — prefer short duration until US fiscal clarity improves.

  • Commodities: Positive — bullish on gold long term; add positions on corrections.

  • FX: Range-bound — USD/JPY expected to trade 147–150 pending domestic policy direction.

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