Weekly Investment Observation (October 19, 2025)

1. Key Economic Indicators

  • US full-year 2025 growth forecast revised to 1.8% (from ~1.3%) — “resilient yet fragile” amid trade friction and weak housing.

  • US CPI (September): Release postponed due to government shutdown (now expected Oct 24). Market expects +3.3% YoY driven by energy costs.

  • US Retail Sales (September): Official release delayed; Chicago Fed estimates core sales +0.5% MoM, indicating steady consumer demand.

  • China Q3 GDP +4.8% ( Q2 +5.2% ) — momentum slowing, adding pressure for policy support.

  • China exports +8.3% YoY (beat +6%) but US-bound shipments fell.

  • Japan auto/transport machinery index +9 (vs +33 prior) — first decline in 4 months signalling softer external demand.

  • FX: Dollar index ~98.7; USD/JPY ~151.2 — dollar under pressure as rate-cut bets rise and trade tensions flare.

2. Major Economic & Geopolitical News

  • IMF upgraded global growth to 3.2% for 2025 but warned of renewed US-China trade risks.

  • IMF flagged record public debt; global debt-to-GDP could exceed 100% by 2029.

  • Japan’s finance minister urged vigilance on FX volatility amid rising external uncertainty.

  • US mulling 100% tariffs on Chinese rare-earth imports; Beijing accelerating pivot from US market.

  • Asia remains export-driven yet vulnerable to trade frictions; domestic demand strengthening becomes a policy priority.

  • “Data darkness” in the US due to delayed statistics heightens short-term market volatility.

3. Investment Stance

  • Equities: Cautious — uncertainty from data delays and trade tensions limits upside even amid solid earnings.

  • Bonds: Neutral to slightly positive — peak-rate environment supports treasuries as safe assets; limited yield downside.

  • Commodities: Slightly positive — steady Chinese exports and geopolitical risks support metals and gold.

  • FX: Range-bound — USD soft, JPY/EUR firm; awaiting policy clarity for next trend.

Overall: Markets enter a “data-blind period,” with policy uncertainty and trade friction dominating sentiment. Maintaining diversification and liquidity remains key.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Today’s Macro & Geopolitical News (2025-12-29)

United States With the year-end shortened week underway, focus shifts to the “FOMC minutes” and fine-tuning expectations for early-2026 cuts (markets are prone to think in terms of the “late stage” of the easing cycle). The policy rate is reported in the 3.50–3.75% range; the near-term tug-of-war remains between “how the slowdown unfolds” and the risk of inflation re-accelerating. In housing, pending home sales and house-price indicators tend to drive headlines; the key question is how much elevated rates continue to restrain demand. Equities, after strong year-to-date gains, can be dominated by rebalancing flows; thinner liquidity can amplify day-to-day swings. Europe For the covered date (overseas: 12/28), fresh headlines on major data/monetary policy are limited (news flow typically thins into year-end). Rates sit at elevated levels—Germany 10Y around 2.86% and UK 10Y around 4.51%—reflecting a tug-of-war between disinflation and fiscal/supply dynamics. With holiday-thin trading, bot...
Read more

Today’s Economic & Geopolitical News (2026-01-02)

United States Early-year positioning is again clustering around “AI + data centers,” with sovereign-style capital tending to favor U.S. assets tied to digital infrastructure and AI—supportive for U.S. risk assets at the margin. At the same time, diversification pressure remains a medium-term theme: newer pools of sovereign capital often originate in emerging markets, which can create periodic rotations away from a single-country concentration. Holiday-thinned liquidity can make price action more position-driven than news-driven; the market can swing between “Fed path pricing” and political headlines. In the near term, attention tends to tilt from “growth prints” to the combination of capital cost (long yields) and liquidity (risk appetite) . Europe Bulgaria’s entry into the euro area underscores continued expansion of the currency union: it can reinforce institutional stability, while reviving scrutiny on fiscal rules and cross-country divergence. As an integration milestone, it can a...
Read more

Today’s Economic & Geopolitical News (2025-12-31)

United States The Fed cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 3.50–3.75% at the December meeting, but the minutes highlighted a wider range of views—making further cuts in 2026 more likely to be gradual and data-selective. Some observers note that a government shutdown can disrupt the continuity of official statistics, pushing market attention toward early-year labor and inflation prints. Housing data suggest cooling: FHFA home prices (Oct) rose +1.7% YoY, implying that improving “price stability” could complement lower rates in supporting activity. Market implication: a tug-of-war between “insurance against slowdown” and “sticky inflation” likely persists; if long yields don’t fall cleanly, equity upside tends to become more selective. Europe European equities were supported by banks and resources, with the STOXX 600 pushing toward the 592 area—showing resilience even in thin year-end trading. The ECB remains centered on a 2.00% deposit rate (in a hold phase), balancing disinflation against ...
Read more