Weekly Bubble Risk Monitoring Report

【Overview】

This week, we reviewed global market liquidity, AI-related trends, and investor sentiment indicators.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remained stable around 4%, with real yields near 1.7%. Credit markets stayed calm, while money-market fund (MMF) balances rose to a record $7.4 trillion.
Meanwhile, the VIX hovered between 16–18, and the Fear & Greed Index stayed in “Fear” territory at 33, signaling cautious sentiment.
Overall assessment: 🟡 Caution (Localized overheating).

＜1. Macro Financial Environment＞

  • U.S. 10-year yield: 4.01–4.02%, little movement

  • Real yield (TIPS): around 1.7%, stable

  • Fed balance sheet: roughly unchanged

  • Yield curve: remains flat

  • HY OAS: around 3%, steady

  • TED spread: at a low 0.09%

【Assessment】 🟢 Stable
【Summary】 No stress in rates or credit spreads. Liquidity conditions remain healthy.

＜2. Capital Flows & Credit Conditions＞

  • MMF balance: $7.40T (+$30B w/w)

  • ETF flows: short-term inflows/outflows in AI and semiconductor ETFs

  • FINRA margin debt: flat trend

  • Corporate & HY bond issuance: steady

【Assessment】 🟡 Caution
【Summary】 Cash levels remain high, but short-term flows show volatility. No evidence of excessive leverage buildup.

＜3. Corporate Earnings & Fundamentals＞

  • Big Tech (MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN) earnings next week

  • All maintain strong AI-related CapEx commitments

  • Market focus shifting to ROI and monetization pace

【Assessment】 🟡 Caution
【Summary】 EPS trends remain solid, but investors are questioning whether AI investments can quickly generate returns.

＜4. Sector Valuation＞

  • SOX index: declined mid-week, rebounded by Friday

  • Tech ETFs (QQQ, SMH, SOXX): mixed daily flows

  • Valuation gap vs. traditional sectors remains wide

【Assessment】 🟡 Caution
【Summary】 Valuations remain elevated. Some room for adjustment after key earnings events.

＜5. Real Economy & Supply–Demand Data＞

  • PMI (Oct Flash): U.S. 54.8 ↑ / Eurozone 52.2 ↑ / Japan Manufacturing 48.3 ↓

  • Semiconductor prices: HBM3e–HBM4 rising; NAND/DRAM prices seen up to +20% in Q4

  • Taiwan export orders: +30.5%; Korea exports slightly negative (calendar effect)

  • No new bottlenecks in power or logistics

【Assessment】 🟢 Stable
【Summary】 U.S. and EU economies resilient; AI chip supply remains tight, supporting continued CapEx.

＜6. Sentiment & Market Psychology＞

  • VIX: 16–18 range, steady

  • Put/Call ratio: ~0.8, neutral

  • AAII Sentiment: Bullish 36.9% / Bearish 42.7%

  • Fear & Greed Index: 33 (“Fear”)

  • IPO and analyst activity: no signs of excess optimism

【Assessment】 🟡 Caution
【Summary】 Market prices are stable, but investor mood remains defensive ahead of key earnings.

＜7. Meta Narrative & Expectations＞

  • Core narrative: “AI Infrastructure Investment Cycle”

  • MSFT, Meta, and Alphabet continue large-scale CapEx

  • Themes expanding to power supply, data centers, and HBM supply chain

【Assessment】 🟡 Caution
【Summary】 The AI story dominates, but profitability and payback speed are becoming central concerns.

【Overall Assessment】

🟡 Caution (Localized overheating)
Rates and credit remain stable, but AI-related investment expectations are stretched.
Investor sentiment turned cautious ahead of Big Tech earnings, and short-term volatility may rise.

【Key Observations This Week】

  • U.S. and Eurozone PMI strengthened, supporting a soft-landing view

  • Japan’s manufacturing PMI fell below 50, showing divergence

  • Semiconductor prices (HBM, DRAM) rising due to tight supply

  • MMF balances at record highs, signaling dry powder for risk assets

  • Fear & Greed Index at 33 (“Fear”) — sentiment still cautious

【Next Week’s Key Events】

  • Major earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon

  • PMI final releases (U.S., Eurozone, Japan) and U.S. employment indicators

  • Fed speeches and balance-sheet update (H.4.1)

  • Watch for rebound in Fear & Greed Index, AAII sentiment shifts

【Notes】

This report was prepared with the assistance of ChatGPT (GPT-5 Thinking).
All information is based on reliable public sources, but may include inaccuracies due to data lags or interpretive differences.
Readers should make investment decisions at their own discretion and responsibility.

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