Resilient Investing for Uncertain Times

As of the end of September 2025, my portfolio is structured with a defensive tilt, aiming for stable long-term growth while limiting exposure to short-term market swings. Market Outlook I view the current market as being in a transition phase—from an earnings-driven market to a reverse monetary policy cycle . Policy rates are likely to move lower going forward. Inflation is temporarily subdued but remains uncertain, with room for further increases. This backdrop shapes the way I allocate my assets. Portfolio Allocation Equities: 25% Global equities: 8% U.S. equities: 3% European equities: 2% Emerging markets: 12% I emphasize emerging markets, which carry higher risk but offer stronger long-term growth potential. Bonds: 20% U.S. short-term Treasuries: 10% Global bonds (ex-U.S.): 10% I hold short-term Treasuries to capture yield while limiting duration risk, and diversify further with global bonds excluding the U.S. Commodities: 25% Gold: 15% ...

Jeffrey Gundlach, the renowned U.S. investor often called the “Bond King” and founder of DoubleLine Capital, recently shared his views on gold and inflation in a CNBC interview. Below, I summarize the key points and reflect on how they connect with my own investment perspective. (Reference: CNBC, September 17, 2025) Gundlach’s Key Points Gold could surpass $4,000 by year-end He stated, “I think almost certainly gold will close above $4,000 before the end of this year,” showing strong confidence in further upside potential in the short term. A 25% allocation to gold is not excessive According to Gundlach, allocating 25% of a portfolio to gold is not too much, since it acts as an “insurance policy.” He emphasized that gold is in a winning mode due to dollar weakness, which he expects to continue. Inflation outlook is highly uncertain He pointed out that the impact of tariffs remains unpredictable in both timing and magnitude, agreeing with Fed Chair Powell’s remarks on uncertainty...

 Key Economic Indicators (Sep 22–26, 2025) China LPR (Sep 22) : 1Y 3.00%, 5Y 3.50% → unchanged, signaling limited policy room Eurozone PMI Flash (Sep 23) : Manufacturing 49.5, Services 51.4 U.S. PMI Flash (Sep 23) : Manufacturing 52.0, Services 53.9, Composite 53.6 Germany Ifo (Sep 24) : 87.7 (forecast 89.5) → weak sentiment Australia CPI (Aug, Sep 24) : +3.0% YoY (above 2.8% forecast) U.S. New Home Sales (Aug, Sep 25) : 657k (forecast 645k) U.S. Real GDP Final (Q2, Sep 26) : +3.8% annualized (forecast +3.3%) Personal consumption +2.5%, GDP deflator +2.1%, Core PCE +2.6% U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Aug, Sep 26) : +0.4% MoM, ex-transportation +0.3% Major Economic & Geopolitical News Global Equities: U.S. stocks hit new record highs, Asian markets followed. Strong sentiment, but overheating concerns. OECD Outlook: World growth forecast at 3.2% in 2025; warns of trade policy uncertainty and regulatory risks. France: Economic activity con...

 【Japan: Bank of Japan Policy】 Policy rate: Held at 0.5% (in line with expectations) ETFs & J-REITs: Unanimous decision to start market sales ・Annual sale pace: Approx. ¥330 billion (ETFs), ¥5 billion (J-REITs) ・Purpose: Normalize the balance sheet, minimize market disruption ＜Impact＞ Japanese equities: Negative supply-demand factor Real estate/REIT market: Downward pressure 【U.S.: Federal Reserve Policy】 Policy rate: 4.25% (upper) / 4.0% (lower) Decision: 0.25% rate cut ＜Background＞ Slowing pace of job growth Slight rise in unemployment → Focus on downside risks to employment ＜Debate＞ Governor Milan: Advocated 0.50% cut (dissenting vote) Inflation: Continued caution over “elevated levels” ＜Outlook＞ Dot plot: Indicates two more cuts by end-2025 Chair Powell: Stressed “decisions will be data-dependent” 【U.S. Economic Indicators】 Retail sales: Forecast +0.2% → +0.6% Core (ex-autos): Forecast +0.4% → +0.7% ＜Implica...