Interpreting Gundlach’s Interview: Gold and the Uncertain Inflation Outlook

Jeffrey Gundlach, the renowned U.S. investor often called the “Bond King” and founder of DoubleLine Capital, recently shared his views on gold and inflation in a CNBC interview. Below, I summarize the key points and reflect on how they connect with my own investment perspective.

(Reference: CNBC, September 17, 2025)

Gundlach’s Key Points

Gold could surpass $4,000 by year-end
He stated, “I think almost certainly gold will close above $4,000 before the end of this year,” showing strong confidence in further upside potential in the short term.

A 25% allocation to gold is not excessive
According to Gundlach, allocating 25% of a portfolio to gold is not too much, since it acts as an “insurance policy.” He emphasized that gold is in a winning mode due to dollar weakness, which he expects to continue.

Inflation outlook is highly uncertain
He pointed out that the impact of tariffs remains unpredictable in both timing and magnitude, agreeing with Fed Chair Powell’s remarks on uncertainty.

My Perspective

Gundlach’s views overlap with my own concerns about currency debasement risks and the ongoing dollar weakness trend.

On gold allocation
I agree with the idea that a 25% allocation is not excessive. However, what matters most is the breakdown—the balance between paper gold and physical holdings, as well as the allocation between gold and silver.

The role of silver
Compared with gold, silver is more volatile, yet it has strong investment appeal. Based on my risk tolerance, I consider 5% to be the maximum comfortable level. I will share my detailed thoughts on silver in a future post.

Ideal allocation image
At this stage, my target allocation looks like this:

  • Paper gold: 15%

  • Silver: 5%

  • Physical gold: 5%
    → Total commodities allocation: 25%

Current gold price in yen terms
In Japan, gold is currently trading around ¥17,000 per gram. If Gundlach’s bullish USD outlook materializes, combined with a weak yen, the domestic price could easily rise beyond ¥20,000 per gram. Timing purchases in yen terms has therefore become increasingly challenging.

Adjusting the portfolio
Rather than shifting immediately to this allocation, my plan is to gradually transition from equities toward this target composition, aiming to reach it by the end of this year.

Conclusion

This interview reinforced the importance of gold in portfolio strategy. For me, the more realistic approach is not “25% in gold alone,” but rather “25% across gold and silver,” with careful consideration of the balance between physical holdings and paper instruments.

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