Weekly Investment Observation (September 21, 2025)

 【Japan: Bank of Japan Policy】

  • Policy rate: Held at 0.5% (in line with expectations)

  • ETFs & J-REITs: Unanimous decision to start market sales
    ・Annual sale pace: Approx. ¥330 billion (ETFs), ¥5 billion (J-REITs)
    ・Purpose: Normalize the balance sheet, minimize market disruption

＜Impact＞

  • Japanese equities: Negative supply-demand factor

  • Real estate/REIT market: Downward pressure

【U.S.: Federal Reserve Policy】

  • Policy rate: 4.25% (upper) / 4.0% (lower)

  • Decision: 0.25% rate cut

＜Background＞

  • Slowing pace of job growth

  • Slight rise in unemployment → Focus on downside risks to employment

＜Debate＞

  • Governor Milan: Advocated 0.50% cut (dissenting vote)

  • Inflation: Continued caution over “elevated levels”

＜Outlook＞

  • Dot plot: Indicates two more cuts by end-2025

  • Chair Powell: Stressed “decisions will be data-dependent”

【U.S. Economic Indicators】

  • Retail sales: Forecast +0.2% → +0.6%

  • Core (ex-autos): Forecast +0.4% → +0.7%

＜Implications＞

  • Confirms resilient consumer spending

  • Concerns of a sharp slowdown eased

  • However, risk of inflation resurgence remains

【Investment Stance (as of Sept 21)】

＜Equities＞

  • U.S. equities: Record highs → signs of overheating

  • Questioning true economic strength amid weakening jobs data

  • Not an ideal entry point → continue systematic accumulation

  • Avoid overconcentration in U.S., diversify into other markets

＜Bonds＞

  • Attractive under rate-cut environment

  • U.S. fiscal concerns → avoid aggressive buying

＜Commodities (Gold & Silver)＞

  • Notable as diversification assets

  • Especially focusing on silver and gold

【Overall View】

  • Most assets rising → difficult to find undervalued opportunities

【Summary & Next Week’s Focus】

  • BOJ: ETF/J-REIT sales begin → impact on equities & real estate markets

  • Fed: 0.25% cut, potential for two more by year-end

  • U.S. consumption: Resilient, but watch job weakness & overheating risks

👉 Next Week’s Key Events

  • U.S. PCE inflation data

  • BOJ ETF sale initial impact

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