Weekly Investment Observation (September 28, 2025)

 Key Economic Indicators (Sep 22–26, 2025)

  • China LPR (Sep 22): 1Y 3.00%, 5Y 3.50% → unchanged, signaling limited policy room

  • Eurozone PMI Flash (Sep 23): Manufacturing 49.5, Services 51.4

  • U.S. PMI Flash (Sep 23): Manufacturing 52.0, Services 53.9, Composite 53.6

  • Germany Ifo (Sep 24): 87.7 (forecast 89.5) → weak sentiment

  • Australia CPI (Aug, Sep 24): +3.0% YoY (above 2.8% forecast)

  • U.S. New Home Sales (Aug, Sep 25): 657k (forecast 645k)

  • U.S. Real GDP Final (Q2, Sep 26): +3.8% annualized (forecast +3.3%)

    • Personal consumption +2.5%, GDP deflator +2.1%, Core PCE +2.6%

  • U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Aug, Sep 26): +0.4% MoM, ex-transportation +0.3%

Major Economic & Geopolitical News

  • Global Equities: U.S. stocks hit new record highs, Asian markets followed. Strong sentiment, but overheating concerns.

  • OECD Outlook: World growth forecast at 3.2% in 2025; warns of trade policy uncertainty and regulatory risks.

  • France: Economic activity contracted sharply, HCOB flash composite PMI at 48.4.

  • Italy: Nationwide strike over Gaza conflict; logistics and ports disrupted.

  • Iran: New sanctions risk emerging; currency depreciation and inflation worsening economic crisis.

  • China: LPR unchanged, highlighting limited stimulus options.

Investment Stance (as of Sep 28)

  • Equities

    • U.S.: Strong GDP, but labor weakness and overheating → cautious

    • Japan: ETF-related supply concerns → wait for dips

    • Europe: Weak indicators limit attractiveness

  • Bonds

    • U.S. Treasuries: Potential upside, but fiscal risks limit buying

    • Europe: Lack of stability amid inflation risks

  • Commodities (Gold & Silver)

    • Supported by inflation fears, valid diversification assets

  • FX

    • USD/JPY: Yen appreciation pressure from mixed U.S. data and policy outlook

    • EUR: Weakness from growth concerns

Summary & Next Week’s Focus

  • U.S.: Stronger GDP vs. weakening labor market → mixed signals

  • Europe: PMI and Ifo confirm stagnation

  • China: LPR unchanged, stimulus limits clear

  • Global Risks: Italian strike, Iran sanctions, Middle East tensions

👉 Next Week’s Key Events

  • U.S.: PCE YoY, employment report

  • Japan: Industrial production

  • Europe: CPI flash estimate

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