Resilient Investing for Uncertain Times

United States Reports around the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair revived expectations of a more hawkish policy stance and faster balance-sheet tightening → a setup that can favor USD strength and higher yields. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced delays to January jobs data (originally due Feb 6) and December JOLTS (originally due Feb 3) due to partial government shutdown impacts → short-term rate pricing may become more volatile amid “data scarcity.” January ISM manufacturing index reportedly printed 52.6 (vs 48.5 expected) → easing near-term slowdown fears; the U.S. 10Y yield rose to about 4.273%. U.S. equities rebounded, with semis/AI shares supportive (e.g., Advanced Micro Devices and Micron Technology reportedly higher). Mega-cap tech stayed relatively firm ahead of key earnings (including Alphabet and Amazon ), while the divergence between “stocks up” and “commodities down” stood out. Europe UK equities reportedly closed at a record high, led by financials and...

United States Market sentiment has shifted slightly toward risk aversion, with geopolitical risks once again outweighing equity optimism Uncertainty surrounding the future path of monetary policy is weighing on investor confidence Cryptocurrencies entered a corrective phase, with Bitcoin reportedly falling below the $80,000 level at one point Overall market volatility remains elevated Europe European countries are prioritizing supply chain security, particularly through diversification of critical mineral procurement Reducing dependence on China has become a medium- to long-term industrial policy objective Policymakers aim to enhance resilience against inflationary pressures and supply constraints through coordination Immediate market impact is limited, but this remains an important structural theme Japan With the general election approaching, price controls, fiscal management, and growth strategies are key political issues Balancing inflation control wit...

Period January 25–31, 2026 Key Economic Indicators US monetary policy: Policy rate held at 3.50–3.75% / cuts likely hinge on clearer disinflation. US Consumer Confidence: 84.5 vs 90.9 expected / renewed downside risk to consumption. US PPI (Dec): +0.5% m/m vs +0.3% expected / services-led pickup revives pipeline inflation concerns. Tokyo core CPI (Jan): +2.0% y/y vs +2.2% expected / temporary easing, but underlying stickiness remains. Japan services prices (Dec): +2.6% y/y vs +2.7% prior / labor-cost pass-through stays firm. China manufacturing PMI (Jan): 49.3 vs 50.0 expected / back in contraction; non-manufacturing also fell to 49.4. Major Economic & Geopolitical News The Fed stayed on hold. Cuts are still discussed, but long yields can reprice quickly if inflation re-accelerates or policy uncertainty rises. Key US data releases were pushed back, widening “data gaps.” Thin calendars tend to amplify headline-driven volatility. Japan shows softer ...

Observation Period: 2026/01/25 (Sun) – 2026/01/31 (Sat) 【Overview】 This week felt like a “rates are broadly range-bound, but the market’s interpretation can swing on a single headline” environment. Rather than monetary policy itself, policy-operational uncertainty amplified moves in FX, yields, and risk assets—highlighting fragile sentiment. Earnings from Microsoft and Meta reaffirmed continued AI investment, yet markets became more selective given the scale of spending, so “good news” did not translate into uniform price action. Credit indicators did not signal an imminent break, but a quiet widening bias persisted, while volatility/FX reactions looked faster—tilting the week toward “Caution” on both AI expectations and liquidity. 【Variable Check (①–⑥)】 ① Capital Cost (= Rates + Liquidity): Long-term yields: □ Down ■ Flat □ Up Liquidity: □ Improving ■ Flat □ Worsening Comment: U.S. 10-year yields largely stayed within a range, and the main story was “interpretation d...

United States Sticky inflation remains in focus, keeping downward revisions to rate-cut expectations on the table and increasing sensitivity in rates and growth stocks. Recent wholesale inflation (PPI) was reported to have come in above expectations, reviving “inflation re-acceleration” concerns alongside the soft-landing narrative. Speculation around upcoming Fed appointments is adding policy uncertainty and could feed volatility in Treasuries and the dollar. Market implication: unless wages and services inflation cool decisively, longer-term yields may stay elevated. Europe The economy appears to be slowing without a clear break, but any acceleration in the pace of easing likely requires more confirming data—so yields may not fall in a straight line. With euro-area growth figures released, the more resilient growth looks, the easier it is for the ECB to justify a “not in a hurry” stance on cuts. Defense and security cooperation is becoming more prominent, potentially influencing fisc...