Today’s Economic & Geopolitical News (2026-02-03)

United States

  • Reports around the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair revived expectations of a more hawkish policy stance and faster balance-sheet tightening → a setup that can favor USD strength and higher yields.

  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced delays to January jobs data (originally due Feb 6) and December JOLTS (originally due Feb 3) due to partial government shutdown impacts → short-term rate pricing may become more volatile amid “data scarcity.”

  • January ISM manufacturing index reportedly printed 52.6 (vs 48.5 expected) → easing near-term slowdown fears; the U.S. 10Y yield rose to about 4.273%.

  • U.S. equities rebounded, with semis/AI shares supportive (e.g., Advanced Micro Devices and Micron Technology reportedly higher).

  • Mega-cap tech stayed relatively firm ahead of key earnings (including Alphabet and Amazon), while the divergence between “stocks up” and “commodities down” stood out.

Europe

  • UK equities reportedly closed at a record high, led by financials and healthcare, while resources/energy lagged amid commodity weakness.

  • The Bank of England meeting (Feb 5) is expected to keep the policy rate at 3.75%; wage dynamics remain the key swing factor.

  • The European Central Bank also meets on Feb 5; the market is focused on how officials weigh EUR strength and inflation prints (HICP due Feb 4).

  • German 10Y yields around 2.86% and 2Y around 2.09% edged higher → despite the commodity selloff, flight-to-quality into core bonds appears limited.

Japan

  • As of the NY close equivalent, USD/JPY was around 155.63 and EUR/USD around 1.1791 → higher U.S. yields kept the USD supported.

  • In Tokyo on Feb 2, equities fell on commodity spillovers, while the 10Y JGB yield eased toward ~2.23% (bond prices up).

  • Domestic politics (including election-related fiscal expectations) is increasingly a factor for JGB supply/demand and FX sentiment.

  • With U.S. data delayed, JPY moves may be driven more by rate differentials and shifts in risk appetite than by fresh macro releases.

China

  • Reports that the U.S. plans an initial ~$12bn program to build stockpiles of critical minerals (rare earths, lithium, etc.) underscore a policy push to reduce dependence on China → geopolitical premia in resource supply chains may persist.

  • Near term, the external mix of a stronger USD and weaker commodities can weigh on sentiment around demand and investment, especially in materials-linked areas.

  • For investors, critical-mineral pricing may remain policy- and regulation-sensitive, implying the need to treat related exposures with “gap-risk” assumptions and diversification.

Asia (Others)

  • The sharp drop in gold/silver and margin-driven deleveraging remains in focus, potentially pressuring Asian equities and equity futures at times → liquidity-shock risk is still being watched.

  • Oil’s decline is disinflationary for importers (better terms of trade), but a headwind for commodity FX and energy-linked equities.

  • Many Asian policy backdrops remain heavily conditioned by U.S. yields and the USD → the trade-off between currency stability and growth support continues.

International Politics (Diplomacy / Security / Geopolitics)

  • Donald Trump reportedly signaled progress on talks with Iran, with nuclear negotiations set to resume in Istanbul on Feb 6 → oil sold off as supply-risk concerns eased.

  • Sanctions and supply expectations around Iran can quickly expand or compress the geopolitical premium → crude volatility may stay elevated.

  • Political influence on U.S. monetary-policy expectations (including perceptions around central-bank independence) remains a live risk premium in markets.

Domestic Politics (Major Countries: Policy / Elections / Political Dynamics)

  • In the U.S., partial shutdown effects are now directly delaying key statistics → reduced data visibility can amplify rate and risk-asset volatility.

  • In Japan, election and fiscal-debate headlines can increasingly impact JGBs and FX expectations.

  • In the UK and euro area, upcoming central-bank meetings keep the focus on inflation, wages, and activity data rather than day-to-day politics.

Real Estate Markets

  • With the U.S. 10Y yield near 4.27%, mortgage rates are likely to remain sticky → housing indicators may stay highly rate-sensitive.

  • In Europe, even if rates are held, real rates and credit spreads can drive further commercial real-estate repricing.

  • In Japan, rising funding costs continue to matter, while rent/vacancy trends remain more bifurcated by segment → selectivity is key.

Bond Markets

  • U.S. 2Y ~3.565% and 10Y ~4.273% (inversion ~70bp) → markets are simultaneously pricing resilience and policy uncertainty.

  • Germany 10Y ~2.86% and 2Y ~2.09% → even with an ECB hold base case, new inflation/FX inputs can trigger re-pricing.

  • Japan 10Y ~2.23% (as of Feb 2) → external yields and FX remain the dominant drivers.

Commodities

  • Oil: Brent ~$66.30 (-4.4%), WTI ~$62.14 (-4.7%) — easing supply concerns tied to Iran talk headlines.

  • Natural gas: more likely driven by seasonal demand and storage/weather than by oil’s move.

  • Gold/Silver: Gold ~$4,565.79 (-6.1%), Silver ~$74.48 (-12%) — volatility amplified by margin changes at CME Group and forced liquidations.

  • Other resources: as stockpiling and supply-security policies accelerate, rare earths and battery materials may retain policy premia and higher volatility.

Technology Trends

  • Semis/AI rebounded, supporting equities; however, rising yields keep valuation sensitivity high.

  • Critical-mineral stockpiling and supply-security efforts can accelerate restructuring of semiconductor/battery/EV supply chains → cost vs. diversification trade-offs intensify.

  • Near term, guidance from major U.S. tech earnings (ads, cloud, AI capex) is likely to set the tone for the broader sector.

Market Summary (Time: roughly NY close = morning JST, 2026-02-03)

  • Equities: Dow 49,407.66 (+515.43) — semis and small caps supportive.

  • Bonds: U.S. 10Y 4.273%, U.S. 2Y 3.565%.

  • FX: USD/JPY 155.63, EUR/USD 1.1791, EUR/JPY 183.49.

Stock-Level View

U.S. Stocks

  • Nvidia: Catalyst = renewed AI inflows / Risk = higher yields, regulation, supply constraints / Next watch = earnings, data-center demand, gross margin.

  • Apple: Catalyst = earnings season with guidance in focus / Risk = USD strength (translation headwind) / Next watch = services growth, China sales, buybacks.

  • Infosys & Wipro (India IT): Catalyst = U.S. resilience supports demand / Risk = strong USD + wage costs / Next watch = U.S. IT spending plans, order book, FX hedging.

Japan Stocks

  • Banks / Financials: Catalyst = higher rates support margins / Risk = slowdown + JGB valuation losses / Next watch = BoJ stance, JGB curve, deposit/loan dynamics.

  • Exporters (autos, etc.): Catalyst = weaker JPY supports earnings / Risk = demand slowdown and tariff risk in a strong-USD environment / Next watch = USD/JPY durability in the 155 range, sales data, input costs.

Investor Takeaways (3)

  • The “commodities down + equities up” mix likely reflects margin-driven deleveraging and liquidation dynamics → prioritize position sizing and liquidity-risk controls.

  • U.S. yields are being pulled by both stronger activity signals and political/data-disruption uncertainty → separate duration management from credit-risk management.

  • Oil’s drop is disinflationary, but geopolitics can reverse quickly → reassess energy equities, importer equities, and FX hedges as a single portfolio decision.

Sources Consulted Today (≥3)

Main Reference Media (Fixed List)

Free Sources (Primary)

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