Today's Economic & Geopolitical News (2026-02-01)
United States
Sticky inflation remains in focus, keeping downward revisions to rate-cut expectations on the table and increasing sensitivity in rates and growth stocks.
Recent wholesale inflation (PPI) was reported to have come in above expectations, reviving “inflation re-acceleration” concerns alongside the soft-landing narrative.
Speculation around upcoming Fed appointments is adding policy uncertainty and could feed volatility in Treasuries and the dollar.
Market implication: unless wages and services inflation cool decisively, longer-term yields may stay elevated.
Europe
The economy appears to be slowing without a clear break, but any acceleration in the pace of easing likely requires more confirming data—so yields may not fall in a straight line.
With euro-area growth figures released, the more resilient growth looks, the easier it is for the ECB to justify a “not in a hurry” stance on cuts.
Defense and security cooperation is becoming more prominent, potentially influencing fiscal stance (bond supply) and defense-sector positioning.
Market implication: the direction for yields and the euro hinges on whether core disinflation continues (wages/services) and how strong bond-supply expectations become.
Japan
Higher rates are increasingly felt by corporates; sectors with heavier borrowing needs face greater pressure on margins and capex plans.
After the policy rate hikes, surveys reportedly show a bit over 40% of firms see a “large negative impact,” suggesting rising capital costs are starting to seep into the real economy.
In episodes of rising long-term yields, the BOJ’s JGB purchase operations (continued taper vs. flexible response) become the key focus, with super-long-end supply/demand a potential destabilizer.
Market implication: financials (banks) and defensive domestic sectors may show relative resilience, while high-valuation growth stocks are vulnerable to higher discount rates.
China
The “external-demand reliance” narrative persists, and weak domestic demand is becoming clearer—supporting expectations for additional policy support.
The official January manufacturing PMI reportedly fell to 49.3 (from 50.1), with weaker new orders (including export orders), suggesting improving sentiment has stalled.
The non-manufacturing PMI also declined, hinting at broader demand softness across services and construction, affecting resource-demand and regional supply-chain outlooks.
Market implication: upside in the renminbi and China equities may remain policy-expectations-driven, while commodities face a tug-of-war between “demand downside” and “supply/geopolitical” factors.
Asia (Others)
Asia’s external-demand cycle can be led by semiconductors, benefiting components, equipment, and materials—though U.S. tariffs and geopolitics can cap upside.
South Korea’s January exports were reported to be +33.9% y/y (preliminary), watched as a leading indicator of global demand strength (especially semis).
In India, expectations around budget/reforms compete with tighter global financial conditions.
Market implication: “semis/export strength” can support Asian equities, but higher U.S. yields raise correction risk for high-valuation names.
International Politics (Diplomacy, Security, Geopolitics)
Middle East tensions can cap risk assets and lift “risk premia” in oil and gold.
Airstrikes around Gaza were reported to have caused many casualties, implying that even under a ceasefire framework, flare-ups remain possible.
In Iran, domestic tensions and external relations intertwine, keeping uncertainty elevated.
Market implication: when Hormuz risk is priced, energy-price swings can move inflation expectations and long-end yields.
Domestic Politics (Major Countries: Policy, Elections, Political Dynamics)
In Japan, positioning toward the U.S. and China can become an election issue, influencing FX signaling (tolerance for yen weakness), defense-related industries, and trade-policy expectations.
In the U.S., speculation around central-bank appointments can translate into “politics → rates” sensitivity in markets.
In Europe, stronger security cooperation could link to fiscal expansion (more bond issuance), pushing yields higher and accelerating equity sector rotation.
Market implication: elections/politics are near-term headline risk, but fiscal, regulatory, and trade shifts can directly reshape medium-term discount rates and profit margins.
Real Estate Market
In Japan, higher rates are gradually biting; fixed-rate mortgage increases can encourage buyers to delay and/or pressure prices.
Megabanks’ fixed-rate products reportedly moved higher with long-end yields, shifting key tenors (e.g., 10-year fixed) upward.
With Flat 35 and other rates in mind, “floating to fixed” switching demand can emerge, but household affordability limits upside.
Market implication: for developers, changes in sales velocity often lead inventory turns and selling prices as an early signal.
Bond Market
In both Japan and the U.S., persistently elevated long-term yields can remain a headwind to equity valuations—especially for growth.
The U.S. 10-year yield was said to be around 4.544% (as of 1/30), with upside inflation surprises keeping pressure on yields.
Japan’s 10-year JGB yield was said to be around 2.316% (as of 1/30), with super-long supply/demand and BOJ operations in focus.
Market implication: when sovereign-volatility rises, spillovers often show up in (1) FX, (2) bank stocks, and (3) real estate/REITs.
Commodities
Oil: WTI 81.33 and Brent 84.99 (both as of 1/30), with geopolitics and OPEC+ meeting expectations as potential upside drivers.
Natural gas: 4.140 (as of 1/30), still high-volatility, reacting to cold snaps, inventories, and power-demand headlines.
Gold & silver: gold 2,837.71 and silver 29.54 (as of 1/30), balancing real yields vs. risk-off demand (a stronger dollar can cap gains).
Other resources: China PMI weakness pressures demand, but supply constraints/geopolitics can also make declines “hard to extend.”
Technology Trends
AI-linked stocks can correct quickly when fundraising/partnership “expectations” fade; in a high-yield environment, selectivity becomes even more important.
Nvidia was reported to have explored an OpenAI investment that has stalled, highlighting hurdles such as valuation, regulation, and competition.
In Japan, semiconductor supply-chain reconfiguration continues; geopolitics and subsidy policy can shape the capex cycle.
Market implication: names with verifiable “real demand” (cloud/inference) tend to hold up better, while story-driven names are more rate-sensitive.
Market Summary (Timing: mainly 2026-02-01 JST / prices reflect latest available session)
Equities: U.S. equity ETFs were slightly lower (SPY 691.97, QQQ 621.87, DIA 489.03; roughly as of 1/30 close), with rates and geopolitics in focus.
Bonds: U.S. 10-year ~4.544% and Japan 10-year ~2.316% (both as of 1/30), with elevated discount rates capping equity upside.
FX: USD/JPY ~152.63 (as of 1/30), with “tolerance vs. pushback” on yen weakness a recurring theme.
Crypto: BTC ~78,771 and ETH ~2,448 (latest), where risk-off episodes can widen volatility.
Stock-Specific View
U.S. Stocks
Apple: Catalyst = recent earnings can validate revenue/EPS momentum / Risk = elevated yields and competitive pressure (AI and device demand) / What to watch next = services revenue, iPhone demand by region, and guidance.
Nvidia: Catalyst = AI capex remains supportive, but expectation resets can occur around fundraising/partnerships / Risk = regulation, supply constraints, intensifying competition / What to watch next = data-center revenue, hyperscaler capex plans, and progress on investments/partnerships.
Infosys / Wipro: Catalyst = AI drives project flow, but pricing pressure persists / Risk = U.S. slowdown, client IT budget tightening, labor costs / What to watch next = order intake (TCV), utilization, and margins on gen-AI projects.
Japan Stocks
Banks / Financials: Catalyst = higher rates can improve net interest margins / Risk = mark-to-market losses from bond volatility and rising credit costs / What to watch next = long-end yields (10Y and super-long) and BOJ operations.
Exporters (autos, etc.): Catalyst = weaker yen supports earnings / Risk = sudden yen strengthening (policy signals/risk-off) and weaker overseas demand / What to watch next = USD/JPY trend, overseas sales/inventories, and tariff/trade risks.
Investor Takeaways (3)
If long-end yields stay elevated (U.S. in the mid-4% range; Japan in the 2% range), growth stocks’ “rate sensitivity” rises again—favor names with higher cash-flow certainty.
China PMI weakness is a demand downside, but Middle East risk can create supply-side premia; commodities often require hedges that reflect this “weak demand × fragile supply” duality.
Japan’s rate rise is starting to reach corporates/households; manage portfolios with a clear split between beneficiaries (banks/insurers) and headwinds (housing-related and high-valuation sectors).
Sources Consulted Today (Minimum 3)
Main Reference Media (Fixed List)
Free Sources (Primary)
ZeroHedge ※Use as secondary; cross-check with primary sources
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