Weekly Investment Observation (February 1, 2026)

Period

January 25–31, 2026

  1. Key Economic Indicators

  • US monetary policy: Policy rate held at 3.50–3.75% / cuts likely hinge on clearer disinflation.

  • US Consumer Confidence: 84.5 vs 90.9 expected / renewed downside risk to consumption.

  • US PPI (Dec): +0.5% m/m vs +0.3% expected / services-led pickup revives pipeline inflation concerns.

  • Tokyo core CPI (Jan): +2.0% y/y vs +2.2% expected / temporary easing, but underlying stickiness remains.

  • Japan services prices (Dec): +2.6% y/y vs +2.7% prior / labor-cost pass-through stays firm.

  • China manufacturing PMI (Jan): 49.3 vs 50.0 expected / back in contraction; non-manufacturing also fell to 49.4.

  1. Major Economic & Geopolitical News

  • The Fed stayed on hold. Cuts are still discussed, but long yields can reprice quickly if inflation re-accelerates or policy uncertainty rises.

  • Key US data releases were pushed back, widening “data gaps.” Thin calendars tend to amplify headline-driven volatility.

  • Japan shows softer headline signals but firm services inflation, keeping BOJ path pricing unstable and feeding through to rates and FX.

  • China’s weaker PMIs re-highlight soft domestic demand; spillovers depend on the scale of policy support and credit repair.

  • Elevated Middle East tensions may lift oil risk premia; if inflation expectations rise, equity discount rates can follow.

  1. Investment Stance
    Equities: Moderately cautious — higher sensitivity to rates, geopolitics, and data gaps; emphasize diversification and sizing.
    Bonds: Neutral — easing hopes help, but upstream inflation risks remain; scale in with a mid-duration bias.
    Commodities: Moderately bullish — gold remains a hedge; avoid chasing oil on headlines.
    FX: Neutral — USD/JPY is pulled by rate differentials vs risk-off; cut size during spikes.

Observer’s note
With delayed data, “low-information” weeks can swing on headlines. Precious metals still work as hedges, but silver requires strict position sizing.

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