Resilient Investing for Uncertain Times

United States U.S. rates traded around 4.27% (10Y) and 3.57% (2Y) , with policy/personnel headlines (e.g., reports around Kevin Warsh ) affecting direction in yields and the dollar. A stopgap budget appears to have reduced near-term “shutdown risk,” while delayed/patchy data releases can leave markets more headline-driven. Equities were soft, led by tech: S&P 500 6,917.79 (-0.95%) / Nasdaq 22,197.75 (-1.38%) , reflecting some repricing of “expectations-first” AI narratives. Commodities rebounded: WTI $63.21 (+1.84%) / Brent $65.97 (+1.68%) / Gold $4,935 (+1.20%) , supported by geopolitics and a softer dollar. Implication: In higher-volatility tape, “lower yields = higher stocks” can fail; sector selection (AI/semis with clearer earnings visibility) matters more. Europe European equities were slightly lower at elevated levels ( STOXX 600 585.12 (-0.20%) ), while UK tech-heavy segments saw a bigger growth-style pullback. Ahead of key central-bank events (BoE/ECB), markets continued ...

United States Reports around the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair revived expectations of a more hawkish policy stance and faster balance-sheet tightening → a setup that can favor USD strength and higher yields. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced delays to January jobs data (originally due Feb 6) and December JOLTS (originally due Feb 3) due to partial government shutdown impacts → short-term rate pricing may become more volatile amid “data scarcity.” January ISM manufacturing index reportedly printed 52.6 (vs 48.5 expected) → easing near-term slowdown fears; the U.S. 10Y yield rose to about 4.273%. U.S. equities rebounded, with semis/AI shares supportive (e.g., Advanced Micro Devices and Micron Technology reportedly higher). Mega-cap tech stayed relatively firm ahead of key earnings (including Alphabet and Amazon ), while the divergence between “stocks up” and “commodities down” stood out. Europe UK equities reportedly closed at a record high, led by financials and...

United States Market sentiment has shifted slightly toward risk aversion, with geopolitical risks once again outweighing equity optimism Uncertainty surrounding the future path of monetary policy is weighing on investor confidence Cryptocurrencies entered a corrective phase, with Bitcoin reportedly falling below the $80,000 level at one point Overall market volatility remains elevated Europe European countries are prioritizing supply chain security, particularly through diversification of critical mineral procurement Reducing dependence on China has become a medium- to long-term industrial policy objective Policymakers aim to enhance resilience against inflationary pressures and supply constraints through coordination Immediate market impact is limited, but this remains an important structural theme Japan With the general election approaching, price controls, fiscal management, and growth strategies are key political issues Balancing inflation control wit...