Resilient Investing for Uncertain Times

United States U.S. equities stayed firm into year-end (12/31): the S&P 500 held around 6,845, finishing the year in positive territory, led by large-cap tech. The backdrop is a “rate-cut phase + sticky AI capex” narrative: total cuts of about 75 bp in 2025 were reported (policy range around 3.50–3.75%), and markets appear to be pricing additional easing in 2026. Implication: risk assets remain highly sensitive to the mix of “lower rates × earnings growth.” In 2026, inflation re-acceleration risks and policy shocks (tariffs/regulation) are plausible triggers for valuation resets. Housing: the U.S. 30-year mortgage rate reportedly fell to the low-6% range by year-end, leaving room for a gradual demand recovery into spring; however, high price levels and supply constraints suggest a stepwise rebound. Europe Europe entered year-end mode on 12/31: STOXX 600 slipped to about 555.94 (-0.5%) but reportedly kept a positive full-year performance. Background: disinflation expectations and “no...

United States The Fed cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 3.50–3.75% at the December meeting, but the minutes highlighted a wider range of views—making further cuts in 2026 more likely to be gradual and data-selective. Some observers note that a government shutdown can disrupt the continuity of official statistics, pushing market attention toward early-year labor and inflation prints. Housing data suggest cooling: FHFA home prices (Oct) rose +1.7% YoY, implying that improving “price stability” could complement lower rates in supporting activity. Market implication: a tug-of-war between “insurance against slowdown” and “sticky inflation” likely persists; if long yields don’t fall cleanly, equity upside tends to become more selective. Europe European equities were supported by banks and resources, with the STOXX 600 pushing toward the 592 area—showing resilience even in thin year-end trading. The ECB remains centered on a 2.00% deposit rate (in a hold phase), balancing disinflation against ...

TL;DR (3 lines: not a summary, but a decision) Base case : This drop looks driven mainly by margin hikes + year-end position trimming (a short-term deleveraging), so the medium-term thesis doesn’t look broken yet. Falsification line : If real yields move into a clear uptrend and gold ETFs show persistent outflows , then we should switch to “the medium-term thesis is damaged.” Do today : Stop assuming leverage-friendly conditions; lock a weekly checklist (real yields, USD, ETF flows, margin/forced-selling conditions). What is the base scenario? (with time horizon) “Short term can stay volatile, but the medium-term pillars (financial conditions, demand, diversification flows) show limited signs of a structural break.” What is the falsification / warning line? (one is enough) Real yields enter a clear uptrend while gold ETFs shift into continuous outflows . What should readers do today? (small actions / checklist) For futures/margin-based trading, switch your assum...

United States Year-end thin liquidity kept U.S. equities slightly lower from elevated levels, with tech/materials weighing (Dow 48,489; S&P 500 6,905; Nasdaq 23,474). → Short-term, rebalancing/profit-taking can amplify price jumps U.S. yields continued to drift lower (10Y 4.124%, 2Y 3.469%, 30Y 4.808%). → As long as rate-cut expectations persist, long rates may struggle to rise, supporting growth stocks The dollar softened (DXY 98.00), keeping risk sentiment broadly constructive, but a lack of catalysts limits directionality. → Avoid assuming “lower yields automatically means one-way rallies” Europe European equities stayed firm near highs (STOXX 600 around 589.25). Many markets are in holiday mode with light volumes. → Even small headlines can move prices Germany’s 10Y yield fell (2.827%, a ~3-week low), broadly tracking the U.S. move. → Reduced tightening expectations can support risk assets Resources/tech helped while defensives lagged at times. → Room for rotation into 2026 the...

United States With the year-end shortened week underway, focus shifts to the “FOMC minutes” and fine-tuning expectations for early-2026 cuts (markets are prone to think in terms of the “late stage” of the easing cycle). The policy rate is reported in the 3.50–3.75% range; the near-term tug-of-war remains between “how the slowdown unfolds” and the risk of inflation re-accelerating. In housing, pending home sales and house-price indicators tend to drive headlines; the key question is how much elevated rates continue to restrain demand. Equities, after strong year-to-date gains, can be dominated by rebalancing flows; thinner liquidity can amplify day-to-day swings. Europe For the covered date (overseas: 12/28), fresh headlines on major data/monetary policy are limited (news flow typically thins into year-end). Rates sit at elevated levels—Germany 10Y around 2.86% and UK 10Y around 4.51%—reflecting a tug-of-war between disinflation and fiscal/supply dynamics. With holiday-thin trading, bot...